The Stranglehold
Masoud Pezeshkian plays the moderate. He channels liberal voices, sometimes pro-Turkish or ethnic Azeri perspectives, into ministries. It is a useful role. But do not mistake performance for division. After a heinous unprovoked attack, Iran’s elite is unified as never before.
Iran’s revolution built its ideology on pan-Shiism and anti-colonialism. It supported South Africa against apartheid. It backed resistance movements not for territory, but for principle. Now is the pivotal moment. Win, and Iran helps redraw the world map. Lose, and the Iran we know disappears.
The US is imperialistic by design. Its vast intelligence community runs the show. They will not allow Iran’s rise to go unanswered. Even if a president like Trump signs a peace deal, the apparatus remains. They will return. They will use every tool, every proxy, every sanction to destabilize Iran, Hezbollah, and Ansar Allah.
This is not partisan. It is systemic. Democrats and Republicans disagree on tactics, not on the goal: containment, pressure, regime change if possible.
Iran knows this. That is why unity matters now. That is why the good cop bad cop dynamic is strategy, not confusion. The stakes could not be higher. Survival or erasure. Sovereignty or submission. Iran is betting on the first. The coming years will tell if that bet was wise.
The Suez Crisis showed how colonial powers used military force to control energy routes. British troops crushing Iraqi uprisings was the same playbook. Keep the region divided, keep the oil flowing west on their terms.
That old order is ending. New technology made it possible. Drones striking with precision. Hypersonic missiles bypassing traditional defenses. These tools let regional powers protect their interests without foreign security guarantees.
Iran and Iraq together hold over 340 billion barrels of oil. Add Kuwait and you pass 440 billion. Production near 10 million barrels a day. Ansar Allah in Yemen now controls Red Sea passages and can influence Hormuz. For the first time since the Caliphate, non-Western forces hold decisive power over these critical corridors.
Iraq has long viewed Kuwait as historically linked. Before Saddam’s mistake, there were discussions of integration. Today, with shared economic interests and new defensive technologies, a voluntary alignment is conceivable. Not conquest, but cooperation.
This shift is anti-colonial by design. Regional powers are using modern tools like drones and hypersonic missiles to secure their sovereignty. The resources and geography are fixed factors. Technology now makes coordination possible in ways it was not before. If political will aligns, global energy influence could gradually move toward these regional actors. That would represent a measurable decline in Western dominance over energy markets. It is not a sudden change, but a steady rebalancing based on real assets and new capabilities.
Meanwhile France is losing its grip on Africa. Gone from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and the Central African Republic. Only small tokens remain in Gabon and Djibouti.
Meanwhile, British, French, and Finnish navies board ships they claim are linked to Russia. Russia noticed. They sent military advisors to Madagascar.
Madagascar sits on the Mozambique Channel. A vital route for oil, gas, and LPG from Mozambique heading to Asia. If Madagascar decides to monitor or tax that traffic, like Iran does near Hormuz, it has the position to do it.
The West gave them the playbook. Unilateral boardings. Asset seizures. Sanctions without consensus. If powerful nations can intercept vessels in international waters, regional states can apply the same logic in their own strategic channels.
The North Sea route is gaining importance as traditional chokepoints face disruption. With tensions around Hormuz and the Red Sea, shipping companies look north. Climate change opens Arctic passages earlier each year. Russia positions itself along this corridor. Europe seeks energy security without relying on unstable regions. The North Sea offers a shorter path between Asia and Western markets. It bypasses conflict zones. It reduces transit time and risk. As global trade adapts, this northern artery becomes a strategic alternative. Control over its ports and waters now carries real weight.
Western sanctions and policy choices triggered global energy and food crises. Prices spiked. Supply chains broke. Vulnerable countries suffered most. But this pain is driving change. Nations that could not afford volatile oil and gas markets now see renewables as a path to independence. Solar panels and wind turbines do not need imported fuel. They can be built locally. They shield communities from external pressure.
And the country that benefits most is China. While the West weaponized energy and finance, China built the supply chain for the alternative. It controls most solar panel production. It refines the majority of critical minerals for batteries. It leads in EV manufacturing and exports.
The US and Europe built their wealth on freedom of the seas. Open waterways meant cheap energy, secure trade, and global reach. Now, they are the ones undermining that system. The rules they wrote are being rewritten by their own actions.